About this visualization
Experts provided probability distributions over five severity levels (negligible, minor, substantial, severe, catastrophic) for each risk, with probabilities summing to 100%. This chart transforms these distributions into two summary metrics:
Expected Severity (x-axis): A weighted average of severity levels (1-5 scale) using the probability distribution. For example, if a risk has 20% negligible (1), 30% minor (2), 30% substantial (3), 15% severe (4), and 5% catastrophic (5), the expected severity is (0.2×1 + 0.3×2 + 0.3×3 + 0.15×4 + 0.05×5) = 2.55.
Likelihood of Substantial/Severe/Catastrophic Harm (y-axis): The combined probability of substantial, severe, or catastrophic outcomes. This represents the tail probability—how likely the risk is to cause serious harm. For example, if experts assign 30% substantial, 15% severe, and 5% catastrophic, the y-axis value would be 50%.
Risks in the upper-right quadrant represent high-severity, high-likelihood concerns requiring immediate attention. Colors indicate risk domains. Click the scenario buttons to compare Business As Usual vs. Pragmatic Mitigations scenarios.